NOAA outlook leans towards near-average hurricane season

PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WJHG/WECP) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Thursday morning.

The outlook suggests there’s a 40% chance that 2023 will be a near-average season, with 12-17 named storms (Winds > 39 mph), 5-9 hurricanes (Winds > 74 mph), and 1-4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with Winds > 111 mph). NOAA also mentions a 30% chance of a below-average season, and a 30% chance of an above-average season. NOAA says they have a 70% confidence with their ranges.

NOAA 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook(NOAA)

The near-average forecast is likely a result of competing factors within the Atlantic Basin this year. NOAA predicts a high likelihood for El Nino to develop this summer, which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity as a result of increased wind shear, largely over the Caribbean and Southern Gulf. Other conditions, like above-average sea-surface temperatures and a wetter-than-average west African monsoon suggest we will see more tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic and ample fuel for storms to develop.

NOAA’s forecast is similar to the Colorado State University forecast for 2023, which predicts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

Remember; it only takes one hurricane for it to be a bad hurricane season here. Now is a great time to prepare. Click here for more information on how to be ready for hurricane season.